Over the past quarter, Matrix development pipeline data evolved in a manner consistent with last quarter’s forecast. As such, for the Q2 2025 update, the Yardi Matrix Self Storage Supply Forecast is substantially unchanged.
Near-Term Forecast: 2025 Through 2027
Q1 2025 Matrix development pipeline data continued to indicate a slowdown in near-term new-development activity. Full-year 2024 construction starts declined 22% from 2023 levels, which implies a contraction in 2025 new supply to around 56.1 million net rentable square feet.
Self-storage advertised rental rate growth on a year-over-year basis is improving but remains weak, while the Federal Reserve continues a restrictive monetary policy. Finally, the current administration’s trade objectives have introduced greater uncertainty into the economy. The current forecast does not assume a recession is likely in the near future, but a slowdown in economic growth is probable.
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Combined, these factors represent persistent headwinds that will maintain downward pressure on construction starts and new supply in the near term. As a result, the Q2 update continues to forecast new supply declining to around 46.0 million NRSF in 2026 and 42.0 million NRSF in 2027.
For markets that have been covered by Matrix for at least 24 months, there were 52.29 million NRSF under construction at the end of Q1. This represents 96.3% of the total under-construction pipeline of 54.97 million NRSF. On a quarterly basis, the under-construction pipeline declined by 9.2%, with a decline of 13.9% on an annual basis. The current under-construction inventory is expected to be completed later this year or early in 2026.
For markets covered for at least 24 months, Q4 construction starts currently total 11.35 million NRSF, a 3.8% increase over Q3 but a 27.7% decline compared to Q4 2023. For full-year 2024, construction starts currently total 48.46 million NRSF, a 22.6% decline compared to 2023.
Matrix has confirmed 6.81 million NRSF started construction in Q1 2025. Our starts data is collected with a lag, so this number will increase. However, Q1’s current results are below what was recorded at a similar time for Q4, suggesting Q1 construction starts will be approximately 10% to 15% below Q4 2024 construction starts.
For all markets tracked by Matrix, 52.12 million NRSF started construction in 2024, with 7.06 million NRSF identified so far for Q1 2025.
After moderating in late 2023 and early 2024, average completion times have increased for three consecutive quarters. Projects completing in Q1 2025 spent on average 428 days (14.3 months) under construction. This is above the trailing four-quarter average of 402 days (13.4 months).
